Opportunity Zone Returns Calculator

See what your capital gain becomes at Year 10.

Four value drivers. No black-box promises. Every number ties back to Indiana Dunes Club's underwriting and IRS §1400Z-2.

Path A · If you do nothing
$1,136,000

Total tax at sale on the capital gain — recapture + LTCG + NIIT, paid at Y1.

Indiana Dunes Club QROF advantage at Y10
+$11,367,370

vs. paying tax and investing after-tax at 6.0%.

Year-by-year: Path A vs Indiana Dunes Club QROF

Values shown ex-basis · NNN rent reinvested @ 6.0%
QROF equity (gain rolled in) Property appreciation (tax-free) NNN rent reinvested Cost seg refund reinvested Path A · after-tax 6.0% (line)

Line-by-line at Y10

Path A · Pay Tax Path B · Indiana Dunes Club QROF
Basis is returned in both paths — shown separately so the comparison is apples-to-apples.

          
Where Most OZ Deals Fail

The #1 risk in an Opportunity Zone is Year 10 residual value.

The 30% rural step-up and the tax-free exit only matter if the underlying real estate is actually worth 2× at year 10. Here's how Indiana Dunes Club defends it.

The 6 unknowns

Most OZ deals cannot defend Y10 value

  • No comps. Emerging OZ tracts with no arm's-length trades to anchor exit pricing.
  • Sponsor-controlled marks. "Fair value" reported by the sponsor — no independent broker or appraisal.
  • Exit dependent on refinancing. The plan requires a 10-year cash-out refi that a 2035 rate market may not support.
  • Bulk-buyer risk. A single-asset multifamily or hotel must sell as one block to one institutional buyer.
  • Lease-up assumptions. Rent growth and stabilized cap rates baked in at aggressive underwriting.
  • Location bet. The OZ tract was designated for economic distress — the exit assumes gentrification that may not arrive.
The Indiana Dunes Club answer

Why Indiana Dunes Club is different

  • 71 fee-simple homesites. Each parcel sells to an individual homeowner — no bulk-buyer risk, no institutional exit needed.
  • Live comps next door. Beachwalk trades $675K–$1.4M; Whisper Dunes just closed at $1.35M and $3.01M — real, arm's-length transactions, not sponsor marks.
  • Median $459/sf on 2026 YTD sales, with buyers paying 15–17% over ask on turnkey product.
  • 26.2-acre private lake + dune frontage. The scarcity story — last privately held shoreline of Lake Kai — is inherent to the land, not the underwriting.
  • Rural QROF (30% step-up). The site sits in a federally designated rural census tract — permanent 30% exclusion locked at Y5.
  • Indiana Dunes National Park >4M visitors in 2025. More than Yellowstone, Yosemite, or Grand Canyon — a demand engine that predates the OZ designation.

Assumptions & footnotes

  1. Rural QROF 30% step-up at Y5. The Indiana Dunes Club site sits in a rural-designated OZ tract, qualifying for the 30% permanent basis step-up (vs. 10% for urban tracts) under OZ 2.0. Trigger date is the fifth anniversary of the QROF equity investment. See IRS Opportunity Zones FAQ.
  2. Tax-free appreciation at Y10. Under IRC §1400Z-2(c), an investor who holds a QOF interest for 10 years may elect to step up basis to fair market value at disposition, eliminating federal tax on post-investment appreciation. Illinois conforms — no state-level clawback on the exit gain. See Novogradac state conformity chart.
  3. Cost segregation refund assumes 100% bonus depreciation restored under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (P.L. 119-21, IRC §168(k)) for qualified property placed in service after Jan. 19, 2025. Because the home is under a 10-year NNN master lease to Wanderluxe, the resulting depreciation flows as passive rental loss on the investor's Schedule E — usable against passive income currently, and against ordinary income if the investor qualifies as a real estate professional (IRC §469(c)(7)). Refund modeled at combined federal ordinary + state rate; CPA sign-off required. See IRS OBBBA bonus depreciation guidance.
  4. NNN master lease rent (Wanderluxe). At delivery, The Wanderluxe Collection executes a 10-year triple-net master lease. Year-1 rent equals the selected cap rate multiplied by the stabilized property value (modeled at the capital gain rolled in). Rent escalates by the selected annual step-up. Wanderluxe bears taxes, insurance, and maintenance under NNN terms and operates the home under its All-Seasons Resort Club program — investors carry no operating role. Rent is taxed as ordinary rental income as received; cash flows are reinvested at the 6.0% Path A benchmark rate to Year 10. Wanderluxe is owned and operated by Rob Harte and today runs 100+ Beachwalk-market homes with approximately $6.5M annual gross revenue — the operator credit behind the lease.
  5. Property appreciation is applied to the initial QROF equity ($ capital gain rolled in), compounding annually at the selected rate. At 7%/yr for 10 years the multiplier is 1.967×. Beachwalk homes have roughly tripled over two decades — the calculator's default is materially more conservative.
  6. Illinois top-bracket tax profile: 20% federal LTCG + 3.8% NIIT + 4.95% Illinois = 28.75% blended LTCG. Ordinary income (for the cost seg refund) is 37% federal + 4.95% Illinois = 41.95%.
  7. Indiana Dunes visitation: 4.02M combined 2025 visits to Indiana Dunes National Park + Indiana Dunes State Park. Source: NPS Indiana Dunes statistics.
Illustrative only. Requires independent legal, tax and sponsor documentation before any investment decision. Cost-seg refund routes through passive rental loss on Schedule E; usability against ordinary income requires real-estate professional status (IRC §469(c)(7)) and CPA sign-off. Past performance of adjacent Beachwalk / Whisper Dunes comparables does not guarantee Indiana Dunes Club outcomes.
Next Step

Underwrite it yourself.

The full financial model — four exit scenarios, live sensitivity, OZ waterfall — is one click away. Drag any assumption. See the deal rebuild instantly.

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